![]() The reverse is true in China, where values are minimally positive (+0.3 percent) for exports, while negative (-3.4 percent) for imports. ![]() In the US, ship movements indicate lower exports (-3.9 percent) and slightly positive imports (+1.2 percent). The indicator also points to negative values for EU imports (-1.6 percent) and exports (-2.8 percent). In Germany, imports are expected to fall unusually sharply compared with January (-3.9 percent), and exports are also likely to decline (-3.8 percent). Already in mid-February ship movements indicated weak trade in February, sanctions against Russia have reinforced this negative trend," said Vincent Stamer, head of the Kiel Trade Indicator.įor almost all economies, the signs of the Kiel Trade Indicator for February trade are negative. "Although the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine only escalated in the last week of February, uncertainty, sanctions, and increased goods inspections to comply with sanctions already appear to impact trade around the globe. This is the biggest slump since the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis in spring 2020, abruptly interrupting the recovery trend of recent months. Forum on Globalization and IndustrializationĪccording to the latest data update of the Kiel Trade Indicator for February, world trade is expected to decline significantly by 5.6 percent compared with the previous month (price and seasonally adjusted).
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